Musings on Markets

JULY 27, 2022

At close of trading on July 26, 2022, the stock was trading at ? In this post, I will begin with a quick review of my 2021 valuation, then move on to the price action in 2021 and 2022 and then update my valuation to reflect the company's current numbers. 46 in July 2022. 68746 (including short term investments) in March 2022.

Risk Premium 81

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 81

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In the last table, I look at the intrinsic risk measures, broken down by company age: Not surprisingly, there are more money losing young companies than older ones, and these young companies also have more volatile earnings.

Risk Premium 93

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 93

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

EBIT & EBITDA multiple s 5. Working capital needs Thus, I compute pricing multiples based on revenues (EV to Sales, Price to Sales), earnings (PE, PEG), book value (PBV, EV to Invested Capital) or cash flow proxies (EV to EBITDA). Long term Reinvestment (Cap Ex & Acquisitons) 4.

Dividends 98

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

Tesla's rise is summarized in the graph below, where we look at the company's revenues and earnings over time, with earnings measured in gross and operating terms, and EBITDA capturing operating cash flows: 2022 numbers updated to reflect 4th quarter earnings call on 1/25/23 Between 2010 and 2020, Tesla grew revenues from $117 million to $31.5

Start-ups 80

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 80