Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

Put simply, no central bank, no matter how powerful, can force market interest rates down, if inflation expectations stay low, or up, if investor are anticipating high inflation.

Risk-free Rate 84

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 84

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

Risk Premium 80

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 80

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

To understand the story and put it in context, I will go back more than a decade to the 2008 crisis, and note how in its aftermath, US treasury rates dropped and stayed low for the next decade. Coming in 2020, the ten-year T.Bond rate at 1.92% was already close to historic lows. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

As the economy climbs back from the shutdown in 2020, there are some who argue that the monetary and fiscal stimuli of the last year, unprecedented though they may be in size and scale, will not cause inflation because the economy has substantial excess capacity. Louis estimates for inflation rates exceeding 2.5%

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55