Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 10, 2021

I know that many of you are not fans of modern portfolio theory or betas, but ultimately, there is no way around the requirement that you need to measure how risky a business, relative to other businesses. (More on that issue in a future data update post.) But what if the company is looking at a project in Nigeria or Bangladesh?

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

In some cases, a change in regulatory or tax law can put the business model for a company or many company at risk. I confess that the line between whether nature or man is to blame for some catastrophes is a gray one and to illustrate, consider the COVID crisis in 2020. Note that these higher discount rates apply in both scenarios.

Risk Premium 74

Risk Premium Start-ups Beta Marketability 74

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

An Optimizing Tool In my second and third data posts for this year, I chronicled the effects of rising interest rates and risk premiums on costs of equity and capital. In computing the latter, I used the current debt ratios for firms, but made no attempt to evaluate whether these mixes were "right" or not.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

Thus, you and I can disagree about whether beta is a good measure of risk, but not on the principle that no matter what definition of risk you ultimately choose, riskier investments need higher hurdles than safer investments.

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Beta & Risk 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. I also have implied equity risk premiums (forward-looking and dynamic estimate of what investors are pricing stocks to earn in the future) for the S&P 500 going back annually to 1960 and monthly to 2008, and equity risk premiums for countries.

Dividends 98

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 79

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 79

Musings on Markets

JULY 22, 2021

Revenues did drop in 2020, as COVID restrictions put a crimp on the restaurant business, but the quarterly data suggests that business is coming back. That number was 23.13% in FY 2020, but dropped to 21.03% in FY 2021, as shut downs put a crimp on business.

Marketability 86

Marketability Start-ups Equity Price to Book 86