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Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data

Musings on Markets

Thus, as you peruse my historical data on implied equity risk premiums or PE ratios for the S&P 500 over time, you may be tempted to compute averages and use them in your investment strategies, or use my industry averages for debt ratios and pricing multiples as the target for every company in the peer group, but you should hold back.

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Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!

Musings on Markets

The first is the dividends you receive, while you hold stocks, a cash flow stream that provides a measure of stability to investors who seek it. trillion in market capitalization, but for balance, it is also worth noting that US equities are still holding on to a gain of $6.9

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Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy!

Musings on Markets

In percentage terms, energy stocks have lost the most in value, with market capitalizations dropping by 14.2%, dragged down by declining oil prices. There was undoubtedly some panic selling on Friday, but the flight to safety, whether it be in moving into treasuries or high dividend paying stocks, was muted.

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Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - Winning the Expectations Game!

Musings on Markets

That positive result notwithstanding, the recovery was uneven, with a big chunk of the increase in market capitalization coming from seven companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, NVidia and Tesla) and wide divergences in performance across stocks, in performance. increase in market capitalization.

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Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity risk premiums , and the latter by default spreads.

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Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?

Musings on Markets

I have also developed a practice in the last decade of spending much of January exploring what the data tells us, and does not tell us, about the investing, financing and dividend choices that companies made during the most recent year. Beta & Risk 1. Dividends and Potential Dividends (FCFE) 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2.

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Market Resilience or Investors In Denial? A Mid-year Assessment for 2023!

Musings on Markets

Exacerbating the pain, corporate default spreads rose during the course of 2022: While default spreads rose across ratings classes, the rise was much more pronounced for the lowest ratings classes, part of a bigger story about risk capital that spilled across markets and asset classes. that was lost last year.